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Financial incentives are provided by governments to encourage the plantationof new woodland to increase habitat, biodiversity, carbon sequestration, andother economic benefits for landowners. Whilst these are largely positiveeffects, it is worth considering that greater biodiversity and presence ofwildlife species in proximity to agricultural holdings may pose a risk ofdisease transmission between wildlife and livestock. Wildlife transmission andthe provision of a reservoir for infectious disease is particularly importantin the transmission dynamics of bovine tuberculosis.  In this paper we develop an economic model for changing land use due toforestry subsidies. We use this asses the impact on wild deer populations inthe newly created woodland areas and the emergent infectious disease riskarising from the proximity of new and existing wild deer populations andexisting cattle holdings.  We consider an area in the South-West of Scotland, having existing woodland,deer populations, and extensive and diverse cattle farm holdings. In this areawe find that, with a varying level of subsidy and plausible new woodlandcreation, the contact risk between areas of wild deer and cattle increasesbetween 26% and 35% over the contact risk present with zero subsidy.  This model provides a foundation for extending to larger regions and forexamining potential risk mitigation strategies, for example the targeting ofsubsidy in low risk areas or provisioning for buffer zones between woodland andagricultural holdings.

Assessing the potential impact of environmental land management schemes on emergent infection disease risks