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Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (sGSL)declined to low abundance in the early 1990s and have since failed to recoverdue to high natural mortality, which has been linked to grey seal (Halichoerusgrypus) predation. Increased grey seal harvests have been suggested to improvecod survival, however, predicting the response of cod to seal abundance changesin the sGSL is complicated by a hypothesized triangular food web involvingseals, cod, and small pelagic fishes, wherein the pelagic fishes are prey forcod and grey seals, but may also prey on young cod. Grey seals may thereforehave an indirect positive effect on prerecruit cod survival via predation onpelagic fish. Using a multispecies model of intermediate complexity fitted tovarious scientific and fisheries data, we found that seal predation accountedfor the majority of recent cod mortality and that cod will likely be extirpatedwithout a strong and rapid reduction in grey seal abundance. We did not findevidence that reducing grey seal abundance will result in large increases toherring biomass that could impair cod recovery.

Extirpation of Atlantic Cod from a Northwest Atlantic ecosystem in the  absence of predator control: inference from an ecosystem model of  intermediate complexity