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The number of active shooter incidents in the US has been increasingalarmingly. It is imperative for the government as well as the public tounderstand these events. Though both analytic and agent-based models have beenproposed for studying active shooter incidents, there are only a few analyticmodels in the literature, and none incorporate civilian resistance. Thisarticle analytically investigates the survival probability of a civilian duringan active shooter incident when he can hide, fight, or run, depending onwhether or not he is in a closed arena and whether or not he is armed. The keyfindings are (i) the civilian's chance of survival decreases over time,irrespective of his action; (ii) there are desperate situations in which acivilian should fight back even if he is unarmed; (iii) carrying a firearm doesnot always increase the civilian's chance of survival during an active shooterincident; (iv) carrying a firearm makes "resistance" more likely to be theoptimal action of the civilian; (v) "hide" might be the best action even if thecivilian is armed; (vi) more armed civilians might increase a civilian's chanceof survival, but it is not always the case.

Analytic models for active shooter incidents with civilian resistance