English (United Kingdom)

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/featured_content/oa?rat=en

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/highlighted_journal/

Global: Zendy Plus annual

Presents the access of premium content as premium feature

Premium Content

Presents the keyphrase highlighting as premium feature

Keyphrase Highlighting

Presents the summarisation as premium feature

Summarisation

Insights

Presents the pdf analysis as premium feature

PDF Analysis

Presents the zaia usage as premium feature

ZAIA

Global: Zendy Plus monthly

Global: Zendy Tools annual

Global: Zendy Tools monthly

Global: Zendy Free Plan

Earthquake nowcasting has been proposed as a means of tracking the change inlarge earthquake potential in a seismically active area. The method wasdeveloped using observable seismic data, in which probabilities of future largeearthquakes can be computed using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC)methods. Furthermore, analysis of the Shannon information content of theearthquake catalogs has been used to show that there is information containedin the catalogs, and that it can vary in time. So an important questionremains, where does the information originate? In this paper, we examine thisquestion using statistical simulations of earthquake catalogs computed usingEpidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) simulations. ETAS earthquakesimulations are currently in widespread use for a variety of tasks, inmodeling, analysis and forecasting. After examining several of the standardETAS models, we propose a version of the ETAS model that conforms to thestandard ETAS statistical relations of magnitude-frequency scaling, aftershockscaling, Bath's law, and the productivity relation, but with an additionalproperty. We modify the model to introduce variable non-Poisson aftershockclustering, inasmuch as we test the hypothesis that the information in thecatalogs originates from aftershock clustering. We find that significantinformation in the catalogs arises from the non-Poisson aftershock clustering,implying that the common practice of de-clustering catalogs may removeinformation that would otherwise be useful in forecasting and nowcasting. Wealso show that the nowcasting method provides similar results with the the ETASmodels as it does with observed seismicity.

Nowcasting ETAS Earthquakes: Information Entropy of Earthquake Catalogs