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The tremendous rise of generative AI has reached every part of society -including the news environment. There are many concerns about the individualand societal impact of the increasing use of generative AI, including issuessuch as disinformation and misinformation, discrimination, and the promotion ofsocial tensions. However, research on anticipating the impact of generative AIis still in its infancy and mostly limited to the views of technologydevelopers and/or researchers. In this paper, we aim to broaden the perspectiveand capture the expectations of three stakeholder groups (news consumers;technology developers; content creators) about the potential negative impactsof generative AI, as well as mitigation strategies to address these.Methodologically, we apply scenario writing and use participatory foresight inthe context of a survey (n=119) to delve into cognitively diverse imaginationsof the future. We qualitatively analyze the scenarios using thematic analysisto systematically map potential impacts of generative AI on the newsenvironment, potential mitigation strategies, and the role of stakeholders incausing and mitigating these impacts. In addition, we measure respondents'opinions on a specific mitigation strategy, namely transparency obligations assuggested in Article 52 of the draft EU AI Act. We compare the results acrossdifferent stakeholder groups and elaborate on the (non-) presence of differentexpected impacts across these groups. We conclude by discussing the usefulnessof scenario-writing and participatory foresight as a toolbox for generative AIimpact assessment.

Anticipating Impacts: Using Large-Scale Scenario Writing to Explore Diverse Implications of Generative AI in the News Environment