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It has been long that literature in financial academics focuses mainly onprice and return but much less on trading volume. In the past twenty years, ithas already linked both price and trading volume to economic fundamentals, andexplored the behavioral implications of trading volume such as investor'sattitude toward risks, overconfidence, disagreement, and attention etc.However, what is surprising is how little we really know about trading volume.Here we show that trading volume probability represents the frequency of marketcrowd's trading action in terms of behavior analysis, and test two adaptivehypotheses relevant to the volume uncertainty associated with price in Chinastock market. The empirical work reveals that market crowd trade a stock inefficient adaptation except for simple heuristics, gradually tend to achieveagreement on an outcome or an asset price widely on a trading day, and generatesuch a stationary equilibrium price very often in interaction and competitionamong themselves no matter whether it is highly overestimated orunderestimated. This suggests that asset prices include not only a fundamentalvalue but also private information, speculative, sentiment, attention, gamble,and entertainment values etc. Moreover, market crowd adapt to gain and loss bytrading volume increase or decrease significantly in interaction withenvironment in any two consecutive trading days. Our results demonstrate howinteraction between information and news, the trading action, and returnoutcomes in the three-term feedback loop produces excessive trading volumewhich includes various internal and external causes.

Market Crowds' Trading Behaviors, Agreement Prices, and the Implications of Trading Volume