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Understanding the emergence of data breaches is crucial for cyber insurance.However, analyses of data breach frequency trends in the current literaturelead to contradictory conclusions. We put forward that those discrepancies maybe (at least partially) due to inconsistent data collection standards, as wellas reporting patterns, over time and space. We set out to carefully controlboth. In this paper, we conduct a joint analysis of state Attorneys General'spublications on data breaches across eight states (namely, California,Delaware, Indiana, Maine, Montana, North Dakota, Oregon, and Washington), allof which are subject to established data collection standards-namely, statedata breach (mandatory) notification laws. Thanks to our explicit recognitionof these notification laws, we are capable of modelling frequency of breachesin a consistent and comparable way over time. Hence, we are able to isolate andcapture the complexities of reporting patterns, adequately estimate IBNRs, andyield a highly reliable assessment of historical frequency trends in databreaches. Our analysis also provides a comprehensive comparison of data breachfrequency across the eight U.S. states, extending knowledge on state-specificdifferences in cyber risk, which has not been extensively discussed in thecurrent literature. Furthermore, we uncover novel features not previouslydiscussed in the literature, such as differences in cyber risk frequency trendsbetween large and small data breaches. Overall, we find that the reportingdelays are lengthening. We also elicit commonalities and heterogeneities inreporting patterns across states, severity levels, and time periods. Afteradequately estimating IBNRs, we find that frequency is relatively stable before2020 and increasing after 2020. This is consistent across states. Implicationsof our findings for cyber insurance are discussed.

On the evolution of data breach reporting patterns and frequency in the United States: a cross-state analysis