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This paper developed a microsimulation model to simulate the distributionalimpact of price changes using Household Budget Survey data, Income Survey dataand an Input-Output Model. We use the model to assess the distributional andwelfare impact of recent price changes in Pakistan. Particular attention ispaid to price changes in energy goods and food. We firstly assessed thedistributional pattern of expenditures, with domestic energy fuels concentratedat the bottom of the distribution and motor fuels at the top. The budget shareof electricity and motor fuels is particularly high, while domestic fuels isrelatively low. While the distributional pattern of domestic fuel andelectricity consumption is similar to other countries, there is a particularlyhigh budget elasticity for motor fuels. The analysis shows that despite largeincreases in energy prices, the importance of energy prices for the welfarelosses due to inflation is limited. The overall distributional impact of recentprice changes is mildly progressive, but household welfare is impactedsignificantly irrespective of households position along the incomedistribution. The biggest driver of the welfare loss at the bottom was foodprice inflation, while other goods and services were the biggest driver at thetop of the distribution. To compensate households for increased living costs,transfers would need to be on average 40 percent of disposable income.Behavioural responses to price changes have a negligible impact on the overallwelfare cost to households.

The Distributional Impact of Price Inflation in Pakistan: A Case Study of a New Price Focused Microsimulation Framework, PRICES