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We investigate whether global toroid patterns and the local magnetic fieldtopology of solar active region AR12673 together can hindcast occurrence of thebiggest X-flare of solar cycle (SC)-24. Magnetic toroid patterns (narrowlatitude-belts warped in longitude, in which active regions are tightly bound)derived from surface distributions of active regions, prior/during AR12673emergence, reveal that the portions of the South-toroid containing AR12673 wasnot tipped-away from its north-toroid counterpart at that longitude, unlike the2003 Halloween storms scenario. During the minimum-phase there were too fewemergences to determine multi-mode longitudinal toroid patterns. A newemergence within AR12673 produced a complex/non-potential structure, which ledto rapid build-up of helicity/winding that triggered the biggest X-flare ofSC-24, suggesting that this minimum-phase storm can be anticipated severalhours before its occurrence. However, global patterns and local dynamics for apeak-phase storm, such as that from AR11263, behaved like 2003 Halloweenstorms, producing the third biggest X-flare of SC-24. AR11263 was present atthe longitude where the North/South toroids tipped-away from each other. Whileglobal toroid patterns indicate that pre-storm features can be forecast with alead-time of a few months, its application on observational data can becomplicated by complex interactions with turbulent flows. Complex/non-potentialfield structure development hours before the storm are necessary for short termprediction. We infer that minimum-phase storms cannot be forecast accuratelymore than a few hours ahead, while flare-prone active regions in peak-phase maybe anticipated much earlier, possibly months ahead from global toroid patterns.

Deciphering Pre-solar-storm Features Of September-2017 Storm From Global And Local Dynamics