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Exploring the potential effects of transitioning entirely to air-to-air heatpumps (AAHPs), we use an integrated weather and heat pump model to understandtheir performance across several building and weather conditions in Toulouse,France. In central Toulouse, where electric and gas heating are similarlyadopted, a shift to AAHPs cuts annual electric consumption. Yet, during colderperiods, a drop in their efficiency can cause a spike in electricity use. Inregions predominantly relying on non-electric heaters, such as gas boilers,introducing AAHPs is expected to increase electricity demand as the heatingsystem transitions to all-electric, though to a lesser extent and with muchgreater efficiency than traditional systems such as electric resistive heaters.In a separate analysis to evaluate the impact of AAHPs on local climateconditions, we find that AAHPs have a small influence of about 0.5 {\deg}C onthe outdoor air temperature. This change is thus unlikely to meaningfully alterAAHPs' performance through feedback.

Impact of Air-to-Air Heat Pumps on Energy and Climate in a Mid-Latitude City