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A risk analysis is conducted considering several release sources locatedaround the NEOM shoreline. The sources are selected close to the coast and inneighboring regions of high marine traffic. The evolution of oil spillsreleased by these sources is simulated using the MOHID model, driven byvalidated, high-resolution met-ocean fields of the Red Sea. For each source,simulations are conducted over a 4-week period, starting from first, tenth andtwentieth days of each month, covering five consecutive years. A total of 48simulations are thus conducted for each source location, adequately reflectingthe variability of met-ocean conditions in the region. The risk associated witheach source is described in terms of amount of oil beached, and by the elapsedtime required for the spilled oil to reach the NEOM coast, extending from theGulf of Aqaba in the North to Duba in the South. A finer analysis is performedby segmenting the NEOM shoreline, based on important coastal development andinstallation sites. For each subregion, source and release event considered, ahistogram of the amount of volume beached is generated, also classifyingindividual events in terms of the corresponding arrival times. In addition, foreach subregion considered, an inverse analysis is conducted to identify regionsof dependence of the cumulative risk, estimated using the collection of allsources and events considered. The transport of oil around the NEOM shorelinesis promoted by chaotic circulations and northwest winds in summer, and adominant cyclonic eddy in winter. Hence, spills originating from releasesources located close to the NEOM shorelines are characterized by large monthlyvariations in arrival times, ranging from less than a week to more than twoweeks. Large variations in the volume fraction of beached oil, ranging fromless then 50\% to more than 80% are reported.

Oil Spill Risk Analysis For The NEOM Shoreline