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The global value of open source software is estimated to be in the billionsor trillions worldwide1, but despite this, it is often under-resourced andsubject to high-impact security vulnerabilities and stability failures2,3. Inorder to investigate factors contributing to open source community longevity,we monitored thirty-eight open source projects over the period of a year,focusing primarily, but not exclusively, on open science-related onlinecode-oriented communities. We measured performance indicators, using bothsubjective and qualitative measures (participant surveys), as well as usingcomputational scripts to retrieve and analyse indicators associated with theseprojects' online source control codebases. None of the projects were abandonedduring this period, and only one project entered a planned shutdown.  Project ages spanned from under one year to over forty years old at the startof the study, and results were highly heterogeneous, showing little commonalityacross documentation, mean response times for issues and code contributions,and available funding/staffing resources. Whilst source code-based indicatorswere able to offer some insights into project activity, we observed thatsimilar indicators across different projects often had very different meaningswhen context was taken into account.  We conclude that the individual context-free metrics we studied were notsufficient or essential for project longevity and sustainability, and mighteven become detrimental if used to support high-stakes decision making. Whenattempting to understand an online open community's longer-term sustainability,we recommend that researchers avoid cross-project quantitative comparisons, andadvise instead that they use single-project-level assessments which combinequantitative measures with contextualising qualitative data.

Individual context-free online community health indicators fail to identify open source software sustainability