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An increasingly salient public policy challenge is how to manage the growingnumber of satellites in orbit, including large constellations. Many policyinitiatives have been proposed that attempt to address the problem fromdifferent angles, but there is a paucity of analytical tools to helppolicymakers evaluate the efficacy of these different proposals and anypotential counterproductive outcomes. To help address this problem, this papersummarizes work done to develop an experimental integrated assessment model --Orbital Debris Propagators Unified with Economic Systems (OPUS) -- thatcombines both astrodynamics of the orbital population and economic behavior ofspace actors. For a given set of parameters, the model first utilizes a givenastrodynamic propagator to assess the state of objects in orbit. It then uses aset of user-defined economic and policy parameters -- e.g. launch prices,disposal regulations -- to model how actors will respond to the economicincentives created by a given scenario. For the purposes of testing, the MITOrbital Capacity Tool (MOCAT) version 4S was used as the primary astrodynamicspropagator to simulate the true expected target collision probability ($p_c$)for a given end-of-life (EOL) disposal plan. To demonstratepropagator-agnosticism, a Gaussian mixture probability hypothesis density(GMPHD) filter was also used to simulate $p_c$. We also explore economic policyinstruments to improve both sustainability of and economic welfare from orbituse. In doing so, we demonstrate that this hybrid approach can serve as auseful tool for evaluating policy proposals for managing orbital congestion. Wealso discuss areas where this work can be made more robust and expanded toinclude additional policy considerations.

OPUS: An Integrated Assessment Model for Satellites and Orbital Debris