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Observations are increasingly used to detect critical slowing down (CSD) inpotentially multistable components of the Earth system in order to warn offorthcoming critical transitions in these components. In addition, it has beensuggested to use the statistical changes in these historical observations toextrapolate into the future and predict the tipping time. Here we argue thatthis extrapolation is too sensitive to uncertainties to give robust results. Inparticular, we raise concerns regarding (1) the modelling assumptionsunderlying the approaches to extrapolate results obtained from analyzinghistorical data into the future, (2) the representativeness of individual timeseries representing the variability of the respective Earth system components,and (3) the effect of uncertainties and preprocessing of the employedobservational datasets, with focus on non-stationary observational coverage andthe way gaps are filled. We explore these uncertainties both qualitatively andquantitatively for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Weargue that even under the assumption that these natural systems have a tippingpoint that they are getting closer to, the different uncertainties are toolarge to be able to estimate the time of tipping based on extrapolation fromhistorical data.

Uncertainties too large to predict tipping times of major Earth system components