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The rise of globalisation has led to a sharp increase in international trade,with high volumes of containers, goods and items moving across the world.Unfortunately, these trade pathways also facilitate the movement of unwantedpests, weeds, diseases, and pathogens. Each item could contain biosecurity riskmaterial, but it is impractical to inspect every item. Instead, inspectionefforts typically focus on high risk items. However, low risk does not imply norisk. It is crucial to monitor the low risk pathways to ensure that they areand remain low risk. To do so, many approaches would seek to estimate the riskto some precision, but the lower the risk, the more samples needed to estimatethe risk. On a low-risk pathway that can be afforded more limited inspectionresources, it makes more sense to assign fewer samples to the lower riskactivities. We approach the problem by introducing two thresholds. Our methodfocuses on letting us know whether the risk is below certain thresholds, ratherthan estimating the risk precisely. This method also allows us to detect asignificant change in risk. Our approach typically requires less sampling thanprevious methods, while still providing evidence to regulators to help themefficiently and effectively allocate inspection effort.

Adaptive sampling method to monitor low-risk pathways with limited surveillance resources