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Can new cosmic physics be uncovered through tensions amongst datasets?Tensions in parameter determinations amongst different types of cosmologicalobservation, especially the `Hubble tension' between probes of the expansionrate, have been invoked as possible indicators of new physics, requiringextension of the $\Lambda$CDM paradigm to resolve. Within a fully Bayesianframework, we show that the standard tension metric gives only part of theupdating of model probabilities, supplying a data co-dependence term that mustbe combined with the Bayes factors of individual datasets. This shows that, onits own, a reduction of dataset tension under an extension to $\Lambda$CDM isinsufficient to demonstrate that the extended model is favoured. Any analysisthat claims evidence for new physics {\it solely} on the basis of alleviatingdataset tensions should be considered incomplete and suspect. We describe theimplications of our results for the interpretation of the Hubble tension.

On dataset tensions and signatures of new cosmological physics