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The trade tension between the U.S. and China since 2018 has caused a steadydecoupling of the world's two largest economies. The pandemic outbreak in 2020complicated this process and had numerous unanticipated repercussions. Thispaper investigates how U.S. importers reacted to the trade war and worldwidelockdowns due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We examine the effects of the twoincidents on U.S. imports separately and collectively, with various economicscopes. Our findings uncover intricate trading dynamics among the U.S., China,and Southeast Asia, through which businesses relocated portions of their globalsupply chain away from China to avoid high tariffs. Our analysis indicates thatincreased tariffs cause the U.S. to import less from China. Meanwhile,Southeast Asian exporters have integrated more into value chains centered onChinese suppliers by participating more in assembling and completing products.However, the worldwide lockdowns over pandemic have reversed this trend as,over this period, the U.S. effectively imported more goods directly from Chinaand indirectly through Southeast Asian exporters that imported from China.

Dual Effects of the US-China Trade War and COVID-19 on United States Imports: Transfer of China's industrial chain?