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I propose a new terminology, international trade strength, which is definedas the ratio of a country's total international trade to its GDP. Thisparameter represents a country's ability to generate international trade byutilizing its GDP. This figure is equivalent to GDP per capita, whichrepresents a country's ability to use its population to generate GDP. Tradestrength varies by country. The intriguing question is, what distributionfunction does the trade strength fulfill? In this paper, a theoreticalfoundation for predicting the distribution of trade strength and the rate ofchange of trade strength were developed. These two quantities were found tosatisfy the Pareto distribution function. The equations were confirmed usingdata from the World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) and the World Bank bycomparing the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian InformationCriterion (BIC) to five types of distribution functions (exponential,lognormal, gamma, Pareto, and Weibull). I also discovered that the fittingPareto power parameter is fairly close to the theoretical parameter. Inaddition, a formula for forecasting a country's total international trade inthe following years was also developed.

Theoretical foundation for the Pareto distribution of international  trade strength and introduction of an equation for international trade  forecasting