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Switzerland experienced one of the warmest summers during 2022. Extreme heathas been linked to increased mortality. Monitoring the mortality burdenattributable to extreme heat is crucial to inform policies, such as heatwarnings, and prevent heat-related deaths. In this study, we evaluate excessmortality during summer 2022, identify vulnerable populations and estimatetemperature thresholds for heat warnings. We use nationwide mortality andpopulation data in Switzerland during 2011-2022 by age, sex, day and canton. Wedevelop a Bayesian ensemble modelling approach with dynamic population topredict expected mortality in summer 2022 and calculate excess by comparingexpected with observed mortality. We account for covariates associated withmortality such as ambient temperature, national holidays and spatiotemporalrandom effects to improve predictions. After accounting for the effect of theCOVID-19 pandemic, we found a 3% (95% credible interval: 0%-6%) excessmortality during summer 2022. We observed a total of 456 (5-891) excess deathsduring summer 2022 in people older than 80 years. There was weak evidence ofexcess mortality in the other age groups. The highest excess mortality wasobserved in July (12%: 4%-19%), the hottest month in 2022. We also found thatfor heatwaves longer than four days, the minimum excess mortality temperaturethreshold in the oldest age group is the 70th percentile of the temperature. Toreduce future summer excess mortality in Switzerland, we propose targeted heatwarnings to older populations and reducing the temperature threshold whenweather forecasts predict periods of extreme heat of four days or longer.

Bayesian ensemble modelling to monitor excess deaths during summer 2022 in Switzerland