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The recovery of many groundfish stocks throughout the Northwest Atlantic hasbeen impeded by elevated natural (i.e., non-fishing) mortality (M) amongolder/larger individuals. The causes of elevated mortality are not well known,though predation by rapidly growing grey seal herds and unreported fishing arethought to be possible drivers of mortality for Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) onthe Western Scotian Shelf and in the Bay of Fundy (known as "4X5Y cod") and innearby ecosystems. We developed a statistical catch-at-age model for 4X5Y codthat accounted for both grey seal predation and estimated bycatch/discards toevaluate the degree to which either of these factors may influence codmortality. The model was fit over a range of predation and discarding scenariosto account for uncertainties and a lack of data for these processes. We foundthat most cod M remained unaccounted for unless cod comprised a largeproportion (>0.45) of the grey seal diet by weight. If the reported bycatchestimates are taken as accurate, then the magnitude of cod discards fromnon-directed fisheries was minor, though these estimates are highly uncertain.

Evaluating the potential impacts of grey seal predation and fishery  bycatch/discards on cod productivity on the Western Scotian Shelf and in the  Bay of Fundy