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As IPCC ARs stated, global warming is estimated based on the average from1850 to 1900 (global average temperature of preindustrialization estimated fromrelatively sparse observations). Given the impossibility of massive increasingobservation data in the early stages, accurately constraining this baseline hasbecome an unresolved issue. Here we developed a new statistical physical modelto quantify the contribution of external forcings to global warming as a"deterministic trend" of the surface temperature series (instead of asnon-stationary processes that yield a stochastic trend) and constrained thereconstruction of the early time series (1850-1880). We find that the existingdatasets slightly overestimated the temperature anomalies in this period, thusthe speed of global warming since pre-industrialization is stillunderestimated.

Constraining the global mean surface temperature during 1850-1880 with new statistical physical model