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One of the most prominent climate tipping elements is the Atlantic MeridionalOverturning Circulation (AMOC), which can potentially collapse due to the inputof fresh water in the North Atlantic. Although AMOC collapses have been inducedin state-of-the-art Global Climate Models (GCMs) by strong freshwater forcing,an AMOC tipping event has so far not been found. Here, we show results of thefirst AMOC tipping event in such a GCM, the Community Earth System Model,including the large climate impacts of the associated AMOC collapse. Usingthese results, we develop a new physics-based and observable early warningsignal of AMOC tipping: the minimum of the AMOC induced freshwater transport atthe southern boundary of the Atlantic. Available observational and reanalysisdata indicate that the present-day AMOC is on route to tipping. The new earlywarning signal is a useful alternative to classical statistical ones which,when applied to our simulated AMOC tipping event, turn out to be sensitive tothe analysed time interval before tipping.

New Physics-Based Early Warning Signal shows AMOC is on Tipping Course