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The prediction of the strength of an upcoming solar cycle has been along-standing challenge in the field of solar physics. The inherent stochasticnature of the underlying solar dynamo makes the strength of the solar cyclevary in a wide range. Till now, the polar precursor methods and the dynamosimulations, that use the strength of the polar field at the cycle minimum topredict the strength of the following cycle has gained reasonable consensus byproviding convergence in the predictions for solar cycles 24 and 25. Recently,it has been shown that just by using the observed correlation of the polarfield rise rate with the peak of the polar field at the cycle minimum and theamplitude of the following cycle, a reliable prediction can be made muchearlier than the cycle minimum. In this work, we perform surface flux transport(SFT) simulations to explore the robustness of this correlation against thestochastic fluctuations of BMR tilt properties including anti-Joy and anti-Haletype anomalous BMRs, and against the variation of meridional flow speed. Wefind that the observed correlation is a robust feature of the solar cycles andthus it can be utilized for a reliable prediction of solar cycle much earlierthan the cycle minimum, the usual landmark of the solar cycle prediction.

Exploring the reliability of polar field rise rate as a precursor for an early prediction of solar cycle