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This study examines the short-term employment changes in the US afterhurricane impacts. An analysis of hurricane events during 1990-2021 suggeststhat county-level employment changes in the initial month are small on average,though large employment losses (>30%) can occur after extreme cyclones. Theoverall small changes partly result from compensation among opposite changes inemployment sectors, such as the construction and leisure and hospitalitysectors. An analysis of these extreme cases highlights concentrated employmentlosses in the service-providing industries and delayed, robust employment gainsrelated to reconstruction activities. The overall employment shock isnegatively correlated with the metrics of cyclone hazards (e.g., extreme windand precipitation) and geospatial details of impacts (e.g., cyclone-entitydistance). Additionally, non-cyclone factors such as county characteristicsalso strongly affect short-term employment changes. The findings informpredictive modeling of short-term employment changes and help deliver promisingskills for service-providing industries and high-impact cyclones. Specifically,the Random Forests model, which can account for nonlinear relationships,greatly outperforms the multiple linear regression model commonly used byeconomics studies. Overall, our findings may help improve post-cyclone aidprograms and the modeling of hurricanes socioeconomic impacts in a changingclimate.

Characteristics and Predictive Modeling of Short-term Impacts of Hurricanes on the US Employment