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Every year, Mexican cartels lose many members due to conflict with othercartels and arrests. Yet, despite their losses, cartels have managed toincrease violence for years. We address this puzzle by leveraging data on thenumber of homicides, missing persons and arrests in Mexico for the past tenyears, along with information on the interactions among cartels aiming toestimate the size of cartels' population. We model recruitment, incapacitationby the state, conflict and saturation as the reasons why cartels vary in size.Results show that by 2022 cartels have between 160,000 and 185,000 units,becoming one of the top employers in the country. Recruiting at least 350people per week is essential to avoid their collapse due to the aggregateeffect of incapacitation, conflict and saturation. Furthermore, we test theeffects of two policy scenarios aimed at decreasing cartel violence. We showthat given the state of violence, increasing current levels of incapacitationleads to a rise in homicides and cartel members. Conversely, reducingrecruitment provides substantial benefits in terms of violence reduction anddecreasing cartel population, calling for structural investments in a proactivestrategy that targets individuals at risk rather than a traditional reactiveapproach centred around incapacitation.

Reducing cartel recruitment is the only way to lower violence in Mexico