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In late June, 2021, a devastating heatwave affected the US Pacific Northwestand western Canada, breaking numerous all-time temperature records by largemargins and directly causing hundreds of fatalities. The observed 2021 dailymaximum temperature across much of the U.S. Pacific Northwest exceeded upperbound estimates obtained from single-station temperature records even afteraccounting for anthropogenic climate change, meaning that the event could nothave been predicted under standard univariate extreme value analysisassumptions. In this work, we utilize a flexible spatial extremes model thatconsiders all stations across the Pacific Northwest domain and accounts for thefact that many stations simultaneously experience extreme temperatures. Ouranalysis incorporates the effects of anthropogenic forcing and natural climatevariability in order to better characterize time-varying changes in thedistribution of daily temperature extremes. We show that greenhouse gasforcing, drought conditions and large-scale atmospheric modes of variabilityall have significant impact on summertime maximum temperatures in this region.Our model represents a significant improvement over correspondingsingle-station analysis, and our posterior medians of the upper bounds are ableto anticipate more than 96% of the observed 2021 high station temperaturesafter properly accounting for extremal dependence.

Explaining the unexplainable: leveraging extremal dependence to characterize the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave