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Arabian Sea Mid-Tropospheric Cyclones (MTCs), which are responsible forextreme rainfall events in western India, often coincide with monsoonlow-pressure systems (LPS) over the Bay of Bengal. However, the role of Bay ofBengal LPSs in the formation of Arabian Sea MTCs remains unclear. This studyutilizes the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to investigate theatmospheric connection between the two basins. By introducing a balanced bogusvortex over the Bay of Bengal, cyclonic systems are induced over the ArabianSea in the majority of ensemble members, exhibiting characteristics consistentwith observations. As the Bay of Bengal vortex moves westward, the middletropospheric trough deepens, horizontal wind shear increases, the low-levelArabian Sea stable inversion layer weakens, and the middle troposphere moisturecontent increases over western India and the northeast Arabian Sea.Subsequently, MTC genesis occurs along the western edge of the trough within2-4 days of model integration over the northeast Arabian Sea. Vorticity budgetanalysis highlights the critical role of vorticity advection and tilting duringthe initial 24 hours of MTC genesis, while vortex stretching becomes thedominant vorticity source during rapid intensification. To further substantiatethese findings, a mechanism denial experiment is conducted using a real-worldinstance of coexistent Arabian Sea MTC and Bay of Bengal LPS, which wasreplicated in the model. In the experiment, conditions unfavorable for LPSgenesis are created by cooling and drying the Bay of Bengal. The resultsdemonstrate that when the Bay of Bengal LPS does not develop or intensify, theArabian Sea MTC fails to form. This study presents compelling evidence for thesignificant influence of Bay of Bengal low-pressure systems on the formation ofsevere weather-inducing MTCs over the Arabian Sea and western India.

Role of Bay of Bengal Low Pressure Systems in the Formation of Mid-Tropospheric Cyclones over the Arabian Sea and Western India