English (United Kingdom)

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/featured_content/oa?rat=en

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/highlighted_journal/

Global: Zendy Plus annual

Presents the access of premium content as premium feature

Premium Content

Presents the keyphrase highlighting as premium feature

Keyphrase Highlighting

Presents the summarisation as premium feature

Summarisation

Insights

Presents the pdf analysis as premium feature

PDF Analysis

Presents the zaia usage as premium feature

ZAIA

Global: Zendy Plus monthly

Global: Zendy Tools annual

Global: Zendy Tools monthly

Global: Zendy Free Plan

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can create significant disruption to humanactivities and systems on Earth, much of which can be mitigated with priorwarning of the upstream solar wind conditions. However, it is currentlyextremely challenging to accurately predict the arrival time and internalstructure of a CME from coronagraph images alone. In this study, we takeadvantage of a rare opportunity to use Solar Orbiter, at 0.5\,AU upstream ofEarth, as an upstream solar wind monitor. We were able to use real time sciencequality magnetic field measurements, taken only 12 minutes earlier, to predictthe arrival time of a CME prior to reaching Earth. We used measurements atSolar Orbiter to constrain an ensemble of simulation runs from the ELEvoHImodel, reducing the uncertainty in arrival time from 10.4\,hours to 2.5\,hours.There was also an excellent agreement in the $B_z$ profile between SolarOrbiter and Wind spacecraft, despite being separated by 0.5\,AU and10$^{\circ}$ longitude. Therefore, we show that it is possible to predict notonly the arrival time of a CME, but the sub-structure of the magnetic fieldwithin it, over a day in advance. The opportunity to use Solar Orbiter as anupstream solar wind monitor will repeat once a year, which should further helpassess the efficacy upstream in-situ measurements in real time space weatherforecasting.

Using Solar Orbiter as an upstream solar wind monitor for real time space weather predictions