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The adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) may significantly reducegreenhouse gas emissions caused by road transport. However, there is widedisagreement as to how soon battery electric vehicles will play a major role inoverall transportation. Focusing on battery electric passenger cars, we hereanalyze BEV adoption across 17 individual countries, Europe, and the World, andconsistently find exponential growth trends. Modeling-based estimates of futureadoption given past trends suggests system-wide adoption substantially fasterthan typical economic analyses have proposed so far. For instance, we estimatethe majority of passenger cars in Europe to be electric by about 2031. Withinregions, the predicted times of mass adoption are largely insensitive to modeldetails. Despite significant differences in current electric fleet sizes acrossregions, their growth rates consistently indicate fast doubling times ofapproximately 15 months, hinting at radical economic and infrastructuralconsequences in the near future.

Exponential Adoption of Battery Electric Cars