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The Research Excellence Framework (REF) is a periodic UK-wide assessment ofthe quality of published research in universities. The most recent REF was in2014, and the next will be in 2021. The published results of REF2014 include acategorical `quality profile' for each unit of assessment (typically auniversity department), reporting what percentage of the unit's REF-submittedresearch outputs were assessed as being at each of four quality levels(labelled 4*, 3*, 2* and 1*). Also in the public domain are the originalsubmissions made to REF2014, which include -- for each unit of assessment --publication details of the REF-submitted research outputs.  In this work, we address the question: to what extent can a REF qualityprofile for research outputs be attributed to the journals in which (most of)those outputs were published? The data are the published submissions andresults from REF2014. The main statistical challenge comes from the fact thatREF quality profiles are available only at the aggregated level of whole unitsof assessment: the REF panel's assessment of each individual research output isnot made public. Our research question is thus an `ecological inference'problem, which demands special care in model formulation and methodology. Theanalysis is based on logit models in which journal-specific parameters areregularized via prior `pseudo-data'. We develop a lack-of-fit measure for theextent to which REF scores appear to depend on publication venues rather thanresearch quality or institution-level differences. Results are presented forseveral research fields.

Judging a book by its cover: how much of REF `research quality' is really `journal prestige'?