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Improving road safety is hugely important with the number of deaths on theworld's roads remaining unacceptably high; an estimated 1.35 million people dieeach year as a result of road traffic collisions (WHO, 2020). Current practicefor treating collision hotspots is almost always reactive: once a thresholdlevel of collisions has been overtopped during some pre-determined observationperiod, treatment is applied (e.g. road safety cameras). Traffic collisions arerare, so prolonged observation periods are necessary. However, trafficconflicts are more frequent and are a margin of the social cost; hence, trafficconflict before/after studies can be conducted over shorter time periods. Weinvestigate the effect of implementing the leading pedestrian interval (LPI)treatment (Van Houten et al. 2000) at signalised intersections as a safetyintervention in a city in north America. Pedestrian-vehicle traffic conflictdata were collected from treatment and control sites during the before andafter periods. We implement a before/after study on post-encroachment times(PETs) where small PET values denote a near-miss. Hence, extreme value theoryis employed to model extremes of our PET processes, with adjustments to theusual modelling framework to account for temporal dependence and treatmenteffects.

Using extreme value theory to evaluate the leading pedestrian interval road safety intervention