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Concerns about the integrity of Turkey's elections have increased with therecent transition from a parliamentary democracy to an executive presidencyunder Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Election forensics tools are used to identifystatistical traces of certain types of electoral fraud, providing importantinformation about the integrity and validity of democratic elections. Suchanalyses of the 2017 and 2018 Turkish elections revealed that malpractices suchas ballot stuffing or voter manipulation may indeed have played a significantrole in determining the election results. Here, we apply election forensicstatistical tests for ballot stuffing and voter manipulation to the results ofthe 2023 presidential election in Turkey. We find that both rounds of the 2023presidential election exhibit similar statistical irregularities to thoseobserved in the 2018 presidential election, however the magnitude of thesedistortions has decreased. We estimate that 2.4% (SD 1.9%) and 1.9% (SD 1.7%)of electoral units may have been affected by ballot stuffing practices infavour of Erdogan in the first and second rounds, respectively, compared to8.5% (SD 3.9%) in 2018. Areas with smaller polling stations and fewer ballotboxes had significantly inflated votes and turnout, again, in favor of Erdogan.Furthermore, electoral districts with two or fewer ballot boxes were morelikely to show large swings in vote shares in favour of Erdogan from the firstto the second round. Based on a statistical model, we estimate that theseswings translate into 342,000 excess votes (SD 4,900) or 0.64% for Erdogan. Ourresults suggest that Turkish elections continue to be riddled with statisticalirregularities, that may be indicative of electoral fraud.

Forensic analysis of the Turkey 2023 presidential election reveals extreme vote swings in remote areas