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Social media platforms influence the way political campaigns are run andtherefore they have become an increasingly important tool for politicians todirectly interact with citizens. Previous elections in various countries haveshown that social media data may significantly impact election results. In thisstudy, we aim to predict the vote shares of parties participating in the 2023elections in Turkey by combining social media data from various platformstogether with traditional polling data. Our approach is a volume-based approachthat considers the number of social media interactions rather than content. Wecompare several prediction models across varying time windows. Our results showthat for all time windows, the ARIMAX model outperforms the other algorithms.

Prediction of the 2023 Turkish Presidential Election Results Using Social Media Data