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This paper presents a novel approach to distinguish the impact ofduration-dependent forces and adverse selection on the exit rate fromunemployment by leveraging variation in the length of layoff notices. Iformulate a Mixed Hazard model in discrete time and specify the conditionsunder which variation in notice length enables the identification of structuralduration dependence while allowing for arbitrary heterogeneity across workers.Utilizing data from the Displaced Worker Supplement (DWS), I employ theGeneralized Method of Moments (GMM) to estimate the model. According to theestimates, the decline in the exit rate over the first 48 weeks of unemploymentis largely due to the worsening composition of surviving jobseekers.Furthermore, I find that an individual's likelihood of exiting unemploymentdecreases initially, then increases until unemployment benefits run out, andremains steady thereafter. These findings are consistent with a standard searchmodel where returns to search decline early in the spell.

Duration Dependence and Heterogeneity: Learning from Early Notice of Layoff