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. The societal burden of cognitive impairments in China hasprompted researchers to develop clinical prediction models aimed at making riskassessments that enable preventative interventions. However, it is unclearwhich risk factors best predict future cognitive impairment and if predictiveability is consistent across different socioeconomic groups. Methods. Wequantified the ability of demographics, instrumental activities of dailyliving, activities of daily living, cognitive tests, social factors,psychological factors, diet, exercise and sleep, chronic diseases, and threerecently published prediction models predict future cognitive impairments inthe general Chinese population and among male, female, rural, urban, educated,and uneducated elderly. Data were taken from the 2011 and 2014 waves of theChinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS). Results. The risk factorgroups with the most predictive ability in the general population weredemographics (AUC, 0.78, 95% CI, 0.77-0.78), cognitive tests (AUC, 0.72, 95%CI, 0.72-0.73), and instrumental activities of daily living (AUC, 0.71, 95% CI,0.70-0.71). Demographics, cognitive tests, instrumental activities of dailyliving, and all three re-created prediction models had significantly higherAUCs when making predictions among women compared to men and among theuneducated compared to the educated. Discussion. This study suggests thatdemographics, cognitive tests, and instrumental activities of daily living arethe most useful risk factors for predicting future cognitive impairment amongelderly Chinese. However, the most useful risk factors and existing models havelower predictive power among male, urban, and educated elderly. More effortsare needed to ensure that equally accurate risk assessments can be conductedacross different socioeconomic groups in China.

Identifying the most predictive risk factors for future cognitive impairment among elderly Chinese