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We propose a Markovian model to understand how Italy's public sphere behaveson the green energy transition theme. The paper uses the example of solarphotovoltaics as a point of reference. The adoption decision is assumed to besequentially influenced by the network communication of each person or familyand the payback period of the investment. We apply the model for a case studybased on the evolution of residential PV systems in Italy over the 2006-2026period. The baseline configuration of the model is calibrated based on theactual diffusion of residential PV in Italy from 2006 to 2020. Thecomprehensive analysis leads to a discussion of two interesting societalimplications. (1) Cognitive biases such as hyperbolic discounting of individualfuture utility crucially influence inter-temporal green choices. (2) Individualgreen choices count for the effect that it has on the chances that otherindividuals will also make a choice, in turn abating other greenhouse gasemissions.

Understanding the householder solar panel consumer: a Markovian Model and its Societal implications