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Market bubbles emerge when asset prices are driven unsustainably higher thanasset values and shifts in belief burst them. We demonstrate the samephenomenon for biomedical knowledge when promising research receives inflatedattention. We predict deflationary events by developing a diffusion index thatcaptures whether research areas have been amplified within social andscientific bubbles or have diffused and become evaluated more broadly. Weillustrate our diffusion approach contrasting the trajectories of cardiac stemcell research and cancer immunotherapy. We then trace the diffusion of unique28,504 subfields in biomedicine comprising nearly 1.9M papers and more than 80Mcitations and demonstrate that limited diffusion of biomedical knowledgeanticipates abrupt decreases in popularity. Our analysis emphasizes thatrestricted diffusion, implying a socio-epistemic bubble, leads to dramaticcollapses in relevance and attention accorded to scientific knowledge.

Limited Diffusion of Scientific Knowledge Forecasts Collapse