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This article is a reproduction of a Fraunhofer ITWM report from 28 June 2021on the contribution of various non-pharmaceutical measures in breaking the 3rdCorona wave in Germany. The main finding is that testing contributed more tothe containment of the pandemic in this phase than vaccination or contactrestrictions. The analysis is based on a new epidemiological cohort model thatrepresents testing, vaccination and contact restrictions by time-varying ratesof detection, vaccination and contacts, respectively.  Only the effectiveness of different vaccines is taken from the literature.All other parameters are automatically identified in such a way that thesimulated and the published incidences and death rates match. Among theseparameters are incubation time, mean duration of the infectious phase,mortality rate, as well as two contact rates and one detection rate per week.  Note that we can reconstruct such a high number of parameters only because weassume that the weekly wave patterns in new infections follow real infectiondynamics, periodically driven by high contact rates on weekdays and lower oneson weekends. Usually, people assume that the weekly wave patterns are justreporting artefacts and that weekly mean values are the finest usable data.  One focus of the paper is to quantify the increase in detection rate due tothe introduction of rapid testing in schools. For this purpose, we comparefederal states that differ in the start of school tests and Easter holidays.There is a clear temporal correlation with the identified detection rates.  Finally, we compare the effect of the individual non-pharmaceutical measuresby replacing one by one the fitted rates of detection, vaccination and contactsby neutral ones. The increase in the simulated number of actually infectedpersons measures the effect of the measure ignored.

Starker Effekt von Schnelltests (Strong effect of rapid tests)