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We investigate the theoretical and empirical relationships between activityin on-chain markets and pricing in off-chain cryptocurrency markets (e.g.,ETH/USD prices). The motivation is to develop methods for proxying off-chainmarket data using data and computation that is in principle verifiable on-chainand could provide an alternative approach to blockchain price oracles. Weexplore relationships in PoW mining, PoS validation, block space markets,network decentralization, usage and monetary velocity, and on-chain AutomatedMarket Makers (AMMs). We select key features from these markets, which weanalyze through graphical models, mutual information, and ensemble machinelearning models to explore the degree to which off-chain pricing informationcan be recovered entirely on-chain. We find that a large amount of pricinginformation is contained in on-chain data, but that it is generally hard torecover precise prices except on short time scales of retraining the model. Wediscuss how even noisy information recovered from on-chain data could help todetect anomalies in oracle-reported prices on-chain.

Oracle Counterpoint: Relationships between On-chain and Off-chain Market Data