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The success of a football team depends on various individual skills andperformances of the selected players as well as how cohesively they perform. Wepropose a two-stage process for selecting optimal playing eleven of a footballteam from its pool of available players. In the first stage a LASSO-inducedmodified multinomial logistic regression model is derived to analyse theprobabilities of the three possible outcomes. The model considers strengths ofthe players in the team as well as those of the opponent, home advantage, andalso the effects of individual players and player combinations beyond therecorded performances of these players. In the second stage, a GRASP-typemeta-heuristic is implemented for the team selection which maximises itsprobability of winning. The work is illustrated with English Premier Leaguedata from 2008/09 to 2015/16. The application demonstrates that the model inthe first stage furnishes valuable insights about the deciding factors fordifferent teams whereas the optimisation steps can be effectively used todetermine the best possible starting lineup under various circumstances. Wepropose a measure of efficiency in team selection by the team management andanalyse the performance of the teams on this front.

Optimal selection of the starting lineup for a football team