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We present predictions for the rapidity-differential cross sections ofexclusive $\Upsilon$ photoproduction in ultraperipheral collisions (UPCs) oflead ions at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). We work in the framework ofcollinear factorization at next-to-leading order (NLO) in perturbative QCD,modeling the generalized parton distributions (GPDs) through the Shuvaevtransform of nuclear parton distribution functions (nPDFs). While the effectsdue to the GPD modeling turn out to be small, the direct NLO predictions stillcarry significant nPDF-originating uncertainties and depend strongly on thechoices of the factorization and renormalization scales. To tame the scaledependence and to account for the fact that the NLO calculations generallyunderpredict the photoproduction measurements on protons, we also presentalternative, data-driven predictions. In this approach the underlyingphotoproduction cross sections on lead are found by combining their nuclearmodifications calculated at NLO with the measured photoproduction crosssections on protons. The data-driven strategy reduces the uncertaintiesassociated with the scale choices, and essentially eliminates the effects ofGPD modeling thereby leaving the cross sections sensitive mainly to the inputnPDFs. Our estimates indicate that the process is measurable in ${\rm Pb}+{\rmPb}$ collisions at the LHC.

Predictions for exclusive $\Upsilon$ photoproduction in ultraperipheral  ${\rm Pb}+{\rm Pb}$ collisions at the LHC at next-to-leading order in  perturbative QCD