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In this paper, we study belief elicitation about an uncertain future event,where the reports will affect a principal's decision. We study two problemsthat can arise in this setting: (1) Agents may have an interest in the outcomeof the principal's decision. We show that with intrinsic competing incentives(an interest in a decision that is internal to an agent) truthfulness cannot beguaranteed and there is a fundamental tradeoff between how much the principalallows reports to influence the decision, how much budget the principal has,and the degree to which a mechanism can be manipulated. Furthermore, we showthat the Quadratic Scoring Rule is worst-case optimal in minimizing the degreeof manipulation. In contrast, we obtain positive results and truthfulmechanisms in a setting where the competing incentives stem instead from arational briber who wants to promote a particular decision. We show that thebudget required to achieve this robustness scales with the sum of squares ofthe degree to which agent reports can influence the decision. (2) We study thesetting where the future event is only observed conditionally on the decisiontaken. We give a category of mechanisms that are truthful when agent beliefsare independent but fails with dependent beliefs, and show how to resolve thisthrough a decoupling method.

Eliciting Information from participants with Competing Incentives and Dependent Beliefs