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A tipping point can be defined as an abrupt shift in the properties orbehaviour of a system. Tipping points in complex systems from a wide variety ofscientific disciplines have been compared to phase transitions in physics, butconsistent methodology for modelling tipping points as phase transitions hasbeen lacking. Here, we propose a systematic approach aimed at order parameteridentification in systems outside of physics undergoing an apparent regimeshift. Based on classical Landau theory, we assess the relatedness of asystem's properties to the order parameter by means of two quantitativelyoperationalized criteria: (1) the presence of a significant level shift overthe course of the tipping point and (2) increased fluctuations before thetipping point. We first demonstrate the feasibility of our method by applyingit to a case study of a tipping point in major depressive disorder, resultingin a list of symptoms that are most likely to be closely related to the orderparameter in this particular system. Subsequently, we probe the usefulness ofour approach in the interdisciplinary context of complexity science by means ofexploratory interviews with active scientists. Our results suggest a growingneed for interdisciplinary methodologies in complex systems studies, to whichthe phase transition modelling we present could provide a valuable addition.

Phase transition modelling of relapse in major depressive disorder: Developing and reflecting on an interdisciplinary conceptual translation