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A rapid decarbonization of the economy requires a massive reconfiguration ofits underlying production networks. To reduce emissions significantly, manyfirms need to change production processes, which has major impacts onpractically all supply chains. This restructuring process might causeconsiderable social distress, e.g. in the form of unemployment, if companieshave to close down. Here, we use a unique dataset of the entire firm-levelproduction network of a European economy and develop a network-theory-basedmeasure to estimate the systemic social relevance of every single firm. Itenables us to estimate the expected direct and indirect job losses in thesupply chain triggered by every firm's default. For the largest CO2 emittingfirms we link this measure of social relevance to their emissions. We identifyfirms with low social relevance and high emissions as potential decarbonizationleverage points. We compare various decarbonization strategies bysimultaneously capturing the social and environmental impact under theassumption that specific sets of firms would no longer produce. We find that astrategy based on the identified decarbonization leverage points could lead toa 20% reduction of CO2 emissions while putting 2% of jobs at risk. In contrast,targeting the largest emitters first, without considering their socialrelevance, results in 33% of jobs being at risk for comparable emissionsavings. Our results indicate that supply-chain sensitive CO2 taxation mightreduce the social costs of the green transition considerably.

Using firm-level production networks to identify decarbonization strategies that minimize social stress