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Extracting useful information from noisy near-term quantum simulationsrequires error mitigation strategies. A broad class of these strategies rely onprecise characterization of the noise source. We study the robustness of suchstrategies when the noise is imperfectly characterized. We adapt an Imry-Maargument to predict the existence of a threshold in the robustness of errormitigation for random spatially local circuits in spatial dimensions $D \geq2$: noise characterization disorder below the threshold rate allows for errormitigation up to times that scale with the number of qubits. Forone-dimensional circuits, by contrast, mitigation fails at an $\mathcal{O}(1)$time for any imperfection in the characterization of disorder. As a result,error mitigation is only a practical method for sufficiently well-characterizednoise. We discuss further implications for tests of quantum computationaladvantage, fault-tolerant probes of measurement-induced phase transitions, andquantum algorithms in near-term devices.

Thresholds in the Robustness of Error Mitigation in Noisy Quantum Dynamics