English (United Kingdom)

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/featured_content/oa?rat=en

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/highlighted_journal/

Global: Zendy Plus annual

Presents the access of premium content as premium feature

Premium Content

Presents the keyphrase highlighting as premium feature

Keyphrase Highlighting

Presents the summarisation as premium feature

Summarisation

Insights

Presents the pdf analysis as premium feature

PDF Analysis

Presents the zaia usage as premium feature

ZAIA

Global: Zendy Plus monthly

Global: Zendy Tools annual

Global: Zendy Tools monthly

Global: Zendy Free Plan

Recurrent COVID-19 outbreaks have placed immense strain on the hospitalsystem in Quebec. We develop a Bayesian three-state coupled Markov switchingmodel to analyze COVID-19 outbreaks across Quebec based on admissions in the 30largest hospitals. Within each catchment area, we assume the existence of threestates for the disease: absence, a new state meant to account for many zeroesin some of the smaller areas, endemic and outbreak. Then we assume the diseaseswitches between the three states in each area through a series of couplednonhomogeneous hidden Markov chains. Unlike previous approaches, the transitionprobabilities may depend on covariates and the occurrence of outbreaks inneighboring areas, to account for geographical outbreak spread. Additionally,to prevent rapid switching between endemic and outbreak periods we introduceclone states into the model which enforce minimum endemic and outbreakdurations. We make some interesting findings, such as that mobility in retailand recreation venues had a positive association with the development andpersistence of new COVID-19 outbreaks in Quebec. Based on model comparison ourcontributions show promise in improving state estimation retrospectively and inreal-time, especially when there are smaller areas and highly spatiallysynchronized outbreaks. Furthermore, our approach offers new and interestingepidemiological interpretations, such as being able to estimate the effect ofcovariates on disease extinction.

A three-state coupled Markov switching model for COVID-19 outbreaks across Quebec based on hospital admissions