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This analysis quantitatively compares the evolution in summer and winter peakdemands in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) service area from1997 through 2021. Weather data for the days in which peak demand occurred werealso compiled to investigate the relationship between peak heating and coolingloads and ambient temperature. This relationship was then applied along withpopulation projections and a climate scenario with medium to high radiativeforcing to create winter and summer peak demand growth scenarios for 2025through 2050. This analysis informs resource planners about how ERCOT peakdemand might change in the future and provides new insight into how electricload growth and non-flexible electrified heating demand could have contributedto the February 2021 ERCOT blackouts. We found that historically, summer peakdemand growth has been generally stable and approximately linear with time. Thestable summer peak load is likely a consequence of fairly constant temperaturesobserved on summer peak demand days. Conversely, the winter peak demand growthhas been less consistent, varying much more around the broader trend. Thisphenomenon is likely a consequence of high residential electrical heating loadon winter peak demand days, which saw temperatures that varied widely from themean value. Future peak winter and summer electricity demand scenariosindicated that while average temperatures on winter peak demand days willremain fairly constant, they will be more erratic than temperatures on summerpeak demand days. As a result, winter peak demand will remain more erratic andwill sporadically surpass summer peak demand between 2025 and 2050. Thus,resource planners in ERCOT should place less certainty on winter peak demandprojections and an increased level of winter preparedness on both the supplyand demand sectors appears warranted.

Observations of peak electric load growth in ERCOT with the rise of electrified heating and its implications for future resource planning