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We analyzed data for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) toassess shoulder seasons -- that is, the 45 days of lowest total energy use andpeak demand in the spring and fall typically used for power plant maintenance-- and whether their occurrence has changed over time. Over the period1996--2022, the shoulder seasons never started earlier than late March norlater than mid-October, corresponding well with the minimum of total degreedays. In the temperature record 1959--2022, the minimum in degree days in thespring moved earlier, from early March to early February, and in the fall movedlater, from early to mid-November. Warming temperatures might cause theseminima in degree days to merge into a single annual minimum in December orJanuary by the mid-2040s, a time when there is a non-trivial risk of 1-dayrecord energy use and peak demand from winter storms.

Ensuring reliability: what is the optimal time for power plant maintenance in Texas as the climate changes?