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The coronavirus pandemic (COVID) has been an extraordinary test of moderngovernment scientific procedures that inform and shape policy. Many governmentsimplemented COVID quarantine (stay-at-home) orders on the notion that thisnonpharmaceutical intervention would delay and flatten the epidemic peak andlargely benefit public health outcomes. The overall research capacity responseto COVID since late 2019 has been massive. Given lack of research transparency,only a small fraction of published research has been judged by others to bereproducible before COVID. Independent evaluation of published meta-analysis ona common research question can be used to assess the reproducibility of a claimcoming from that field of research. We used a p-value plotting statisticalmethod to independently evaluate reproducibility of specific research claimsmade in four meta-analysis studies related to benefits/risks of COVIDquarantine orders. Outcomes we investigated included: mortality, mental healthsymptoms, incidence of domestic violence, and suicidal ideation (thoughts ofkilling yourself). Three of the four meta-analyses that we evaluated(mortality, mental health symptoms, incidence of domestic violence) raisefurther questions about benefits/risks of this form of intervention. The fourthmeta-analysis study (suicidal ideation) is unreliable. Given lack of researchtransparency and irreproducibility of published research, independentevaluation of meta-analysis studies using p-value plotting is offered as a wayto strengthen or refute (falsify) claims made in COVID research.

Reproducibility of health claims in meta-analysis studies of COVID quarantine (stay-at-home) orders