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Carbon offsets from voluntarily avoided deforestation projects are generatedbased on performance vis-\`a-vis ex-ante deforestation baselines. We examinedthe impacts of 27 forest conservation projects in six countries on threecontinents using synthetic control methods for causal inference. We compare theproject baselines with ex-post counterfactuals based on observed deforestationin control sites. Our findings show that most projects have not reduceddeforestation. For projects that did, reductions were substantially lower thanclaimed. Methodologies for constructing deforestation baselines forcarbon-offset interventions thus need urgent revisions in order to correctlyattribute reduced deforestation to the conservation interventions, thusmaintaining both incentives for forest conservation and the integrity of globalcarbon accounting.

Action needed to make carbon offsets from tropical forest conservation work for climate change mitigation